GETTING OVER OURSELVES
Only a few members of what’s called the commentariat—NY Times op-ed columnist Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize-winning economist, among them––are doing the vital work of preparing the populace for what’s likely to follow the current economic crisis.
Not that Krugman or any other credible observer would risk predicting specific outcomes during a period unprecedented in our history. All he can say with reasonable certainty is that, even when the global economy regains some sort of equilibrium, we will not simply go back to things as they were.
The economy will almost certainly be reduced in size. A substantial portion of the nation’s productive resources will be devoted to paying down the punishing level of debt that 30 years of devotion to free market capitalism have cost us. The Federal Government’s fiduciary role as economic stabilizer and guarantor of last resort will give it unprecedented influence over national, state and local affairs.
These developments accelerate significantly a process of global market realignment already underway well before the U.S. recession was officially declared. It is not disloyal to acknowledge that the 21st is not America’s century; it is Asia’s.
'STILL'?
Uncomfortable as many Americans may be about this realignment, there are signs we are coming to accept it. One sign is a modifier that has surfaced more and more in recent years in America’s dialogue about the national enterprise—a word that wouldn’t have seemed necessary a generation ago.
The word is ‘still.’ As in, Still the world’s biggest economy. Still the pre-eminent global military power. Still the leader in [choose one from a dwindling number of businesses, sciences and professions] worldwide.
What’s not answered by that defensive posture is the question, Yes, but for how long? Part of an answer, at least, can be found in those recent stories about educated first generation Americans—East Indians––resettling in their parents’ country of origin because of the expanding opportunities there. A generation ago, the expanding opportunities were here.
NO GUARANTEES
Increasing use of the qualifier ‘still’ suggests that America’s hold on top-dog status isn’t almost guaranteed, the way it once was. Through aggressive trade, investment and currency policies, a growing number of challengers could snatch it away abruptly or cause it to erode over time.
Though the signs have been there for a while now, a globeful of crises have made it possible—I say, necessary––to begin to imagine the United States as one of several, rather than as #1.
An administration open to multilateralism, as Obama’s appears to be, could make the transition to ‘one of several’ a matter of policy and practice. Among the many achievements I’m hoping for from an Obama administration, this could be one of its most significant and forward-looking.
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